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Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41598/-1
CME Note: Faint, wide, slow CME observed as barely a partial halo to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and more directly to the E in STEREO A COR2 with a large data gap between 2025-10-03T18:53Z to 2025-10-03T22:23Z. The source for this event is uncertain, and the slow evolving lobed nature of the front highlights this uncertainty, with two visible eruption candidates that are poor fits. A filament eruption spanning N20W30 to N40W60 which begins to lift-off around 2025-10-03T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/304 is observed, along with faint, slow dimming and field line loop brightening over cluster of AR 14232 (N04W14) and AR 14236 (N10W22) starting around 2025-10-03T15:00Z; but neither source is clearly associated with this front. Arrival characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 8nT to approx. 13nT, reaching a maximum of 14nT. Accompanied by a small increase in solar wind speed from 345 km/s to 400 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-09T07:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-08T06:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51004
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 011

Coronal mass ejections: A slow, partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC
CME 571) was detected in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, lifting
off the east limb starting from around 18:30 UTC on October 03. A possible
association is a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant, observed in
AIA 304 data around 16:00 UTC on October 03. Current analysis suggests a
speed slower than 200 km/s and a small chance for a glancing blow arrival
starting from the UTC morning on October 08.

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS   #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

  A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:

            t0      | dt0| pa | da |  v  |  dv | minv| maxv|
2025-10-03T16:48:07.896 | 6.999722222222222 | 99 | 156 | 156 | 38 | 103 | 276


      t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff
     dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)
      pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)
      da: angular width of the CME (degrees),
       v: median velocity (km/s)
      dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME
   mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME
   maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
Lead Time: 115.80 hour(s)
Difference: 25.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-04T11:52Z
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